第2話 Worst Scenario “Influenzation”

“Influenzation” is a kind of coinage of colonization of Covid-19 in our daily life. Many of specialists are now expecting Covid-19 will finish similar to Influenza. Many people will have immunity by vaccination or gradual infection. And effective medicines will be developed to make Covid-19 not serious.

However this scenario seems a little optimistic and gives us anxious future.


1. How long is the vaccine effective? As you know, Influenza’s vaccine keeps only 6 months. Some specialists reported Covid-19’s antibody titer would keep only 2-3 month. That means we should be vaccinated every 2-3 months. Furthermore, there is no sure guarantee for immunity even if we are vaccinated.

2. Even if effective medicines are invented, the timing of medication will be very difficult, because in case of Covid-19 the patient conditions will be suddenly changed.

3. Death Ratio of Covid-19 is much higher than that of Influenza, almost 10 times, especially for the aged.


But we will not be able to be locked down forever and politicians must take steps to restart the economic activities. We have to choose whether Economy or Human lives. However small we can make the number of casualties, it is inevitable that some people should be sacrificed.

How many?

The Death Toll by Influenza all over the world is estimated approximately 300 thousands per year. Assuming the death ratio of Covid-19 is 10 times as much as that of Influenza, 3 million population will be lost annually.

Is that acceptable for the human race? We need much more argument for this point.


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