Deep Current

第1話 Abnormality

“It is unexpectedly low. Strange.”

Youichi murmured by himself. Youichi Koyama, who was 32 years old, was working for the Department of Global Climate in the Meteorological Agency. Today he got on board the Umiyuri, the ocean research ship of the Agency to make research around Ogasawara.

“The calculation was correct. Is there something wrong in the system?”

Akane looked into the screen. Akane Mizusima, who was 30 years old, belonged to the Tokyo Ocean University and was specialized in the ocean biology. Today she also got on board the Umiyuri as an assistant.

“No, the system is working correctly. The temperature is only 2 degrees Celsius. It should be 5 degrees because the depth is three thousand feet. It is 3 degrees　lower than expected. Something abnormal could happen in the deep ocean.”

At that moment the ship was suddenly rolled largely. The helmsman shouted.

“I am sorry but we should go now. The typhoon is approaching.”

“Ok. Please do that.”

One month later. At the conference room of the Meteorological Agency.

Youich was making the presentation. On the screen a colorful map was projected. The title was “Past 30 years’ transition of the deep sea temperature of Ogasawara area.”

The map showed the changing of the deep sea temperature. The deep blue area had gradually been spreading, that meant the lower temperature area had grown.

“What does this mean?”

The Director General of the Global Climate asked.

“I am not sure the details yet but Japanese climate is expected to go gradually cooling in the future.”

“Cooling? Ridiculous. We are now discussing the Global Warming problem. Why we should talk about the cooling?”

“As you said the Global Warming is now progressing. But it will be only for this 100 years. In further future we will enter into the next Ice Age…”

“Ice Age? Is that Science Fiction? Now stop your presentation. I am too busy to hear such ridiculous story.”

The Director General had got angry and announced the cancel of the conference and got out of the room. Other participants had also left the room in groups.

Only Youichi had left behind alone and started collecting materials on the table.

At that time one tall woman was approaching. She wore a grey suit and a thin glasses. She looked a career at a sight.

“I am sorry I showed you a shaming presentation.”

“No, you didn’t. It was very interesting for me. If it’s possible, I would like to hear the rest of this story.”

“It’s my pleasure. Then…”

“Wait, wait a minute. I will arrange the more suitable place to discuss such issue.”

At the French restaurant near Kasumigaseki.

“My name is Keiko Katuragi. I am working for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and now on loan to the Ministry of Environment for COP26 conference.”

Kazuki received her name card and finally knew her name and her job at this moment.

“Lunch course A for me and one glass wine.”

Keiko ordered with an experienced manner. On the contrary Youichi looked embarrassed.

“Me, me, too. And no wine for me.”

It was the first time for Youichi to have a lunch at such restaurant. Keiko smiled a little and continued talking.

“Then, Mr. Koyama, why do you think the Next Ice Age will come?”

“Miss, Miss Katuragi, I believe you have already known the cause of the Global Warming. Many study reports have proved the relation between the Global Warming and CO2. Nowadays nobody would doubt it. But the global climate is not so easy to understand. We cannot say what will really happen because of too many related factors. Even a calculation of the Super Computer Model had been changed many times day by day because of the newly added factors.”

“Yes, I see. But the Ice Age would be a big leap of story, I think.”

“Yes. Most of the people will think so. But the current Model is mainly consist of the global atmosphere, especially the density of CO2 gas. But as you know well 70 percent of the surface of the Earth is covered ocean. To be honest, we have not so much information about the ocean, especially the Deep Current”

“Deep Current?”

“Yes. It’s a big stream of the ocean. May be you have heard a word ‘Convection’. It’s the circulation of water, for example, when we boil the water. It is same for the ocean. The cold water sinks down and the warm water streams up. Likewise the sea water is circulating all the ocean in the world for taking long time. But according to the recent study report, such big convection seems to be gradually weakened.”

“What will happen if the convection become weak?”

“I cannot say an exact influence. But I expect the global climate differential will be bigger. I mean the hot place will become hotter and the cold place will become colder. At present thanks to this Deep Current circulation the Global Climate is balanced and does not become extreme. If the Deep Current stops, the Mexico Warm Current will stop simultaneously. Without the Mexico Warm Current, the temperature of Europe will decrease about ten degrees.”

“Ten degrees down? Does it mean the new Ice Age will come in Europe?”

“In a sense it’s correct. Then I did say ‘Ice Age’.”

Keiko further asked.

“But why the Deep Current is now weakened? What is the reason?”

“One assumption explains the global warming is a possible one factor.”

“What? The global worming will cause the Ice Age, won’t it?”

“Yes. When we look back the long history of Earth, the colder period had been much longer. We are very lucky because we are now living in the rarely warm period namely “Interglacial Period”. The Earth had experienced the Ice Age at least 5 times within this one million years.

Furthermore according to the study which dug up the ice core from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, they confirmed the steep global warming had occurred just before the every Ice Age. Now may be a time at the entrance of new Ice Age.”

Keiko excited and leaned forward.

“Then when, when will we enter into the Ice Age? And how long will it continue?”

“I am not sure the exact timing. Perhaps 100 years will be OK, but further 100 years future nobody knows. And once we enter the Ice Age, it will continue at least 20 thousands years.”

“Should we be frozen in ice for 20 thousands years? I don’t like it. And I don’t want to believe it.”

When Keiko sighed, a dessert ice cream was put on their table.

To be continued